ETH/BTC macro — Jun 12 PM snapshot (~14:00 ET)
Intraday data. ETH/BTC ratio is the 6th consecutive session of decline.
Jun 12 PM update: Pudgy 4.50 rejected, Doodles barely above 3 ETH
The Friday intraday session (02:00–09:00 ET) turned on one decisive data point: Pudgy Penguins #252 listed at 4.50 ETH found no buyer — the floor retreated to 4.44 ETH. Doodles is the cohort's worst performer (−3.9% 24h, vol barely at 3.30 ETH), Azuki volume hit a new tracked low at 5.72 ETH, while BAYC and CryptoPunks held stable with no new PM selling pressure. ETH sits at $1,663 with $1,700 untested for a 4th session; ETF Day 29 data pending T+1.
Intraday edition (02:00–09:00 ET) — picks up where the 06:56 UTC morning briefing left off
Macro: ETH recovers to $1,663, $1,700 untested for a 4th session
ETH bounced off the $1,650.35 intraday low printed in the morning session and recovered to $1,663 by the 14:00 ET snapshot. 1 The intraday high of $1,683.14 never got within range of $1,700 — that resistance level has now capped price action for four consecutive sessions (Jun 9–12). 1
ETH is currently trading just below its Jun 11 close of $1,671.53, meaning the Friday session is fractionally in the red versus Thursday's finish. 1 Intraday volume of 7,285 ETH (11,864 trades) is consistent with a thin Friday afternoon. 1
BTC at $63,350 is up 0.63% over 24 hours — nearly matching ETH's 0.69% gain. 2 The divergence that had BTC materially outperforming ETH earlier in the week has largely closed on a percentage basis. That said, the ETH/BTC ratio slid to 0.02625, marking the 6th consecutive session of ETH underperformance relative to BTC on a ratio basis. 2 3
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ETH ETF Day 29 (Jun 12): Farside shows all issuers at "–" with a $0.0 total — data not yet available per standard T+1 settlement cadence, expected Saturday or Monday. 4 The prior three sessions printed an outflow deceleration arc: Day 26 −$40.9M → Day 27 −$35.5M → Day 28 −$15.9M. Day 29 will determine whether that arc resolves as a streak break or a continuation. 4
Pudgy Penguins: 4.50 ETH resistance rejected
The lead story of this session. Pudgy Penguins #252 was listed at 4.50 ETH in the morning session — the first listing at that resistance level in eight sessions. It did not find a buyer. By the 14:00 ET reading, the floor had retreated to 4.44 ETH (−1.3% intraday from the AM's 4.499 ETH), with #1388 and #3454 now anchoring the floor at 4.44. 5
The next listings sit at #4004 (4.45 ETH) and #3252 (4.45 ETH). The 4.50 test failed but the bid side remains the strongest in the cohort: top bid slipped only marginally to 4.36 WETH (from 4.37 at AM), keeping the bid/floor ratio at 0.982. 5
24h volume came in at 43.31 ETH — down from 56.96 ETH at the AM reading as the rolling 24h window shed volume without replacement. 5 Despite the floor retreat, two afternoon sales printed above the current floor: #8638 sold at 4.59 ETH (ogzgzynftholder → DunkedCookie, rarity #5,788) and #5783 at 4.578 ETH (rarity #1,753). 6 Buyers are willing to pay into the mid-4.50s for select pieces — the resistance rejection is a floor-level event, not a demand collapse.
Supply remains at 2.5% listed — tightest in the cohort. 5
PENGU token held essentially flat at $0.00670 (+0.20% 24h), recovering from the −2.32% reading in the morning briefing. 2 The decoupling between the token and the NFT floor that was flagged this morning has stabilized rather than widened.
Doodles: Floor −2.0% intraday, volume barely above 3 ETH threshold
Doodles is the worst performer in the cohort for both the 24h window (−3.9%) and the intraday session (−2.0%). 7 Floor dropped from 0.4889 ETH at AM to 0.4791 ETH at PM, with new anchor #4188 (rarity #6,789) taking the cheapest slot. The next listings sit at 0.4889 ETH.
Volume at 3.30 ETH cleared the 3 ETH recovery threshold flagged in prior sessions — but only by 0.30 ETH. 7 The fresh afternoon volume of approximately 1.11 ETH came from six sales: five near-floor prints between 0.476–0.489 WETH, plus a rarity outlier — #3585 (rarity #426) at 0.89 ETH to wallet 70ed21. 8
Wallet 5da05d swept #8084 and #7166 at 0.476 WETH apiece — a 2-piece mini-sweep at the floor. That's the sole positive signal in an otherwise deteriorating picture: bid weakened to 0.475 WETH (from 0.476 at AM), bid/floor gap is now 0.0041 ETH, and both bid and floor are declining together with no divergence. 7
Azuki: Volume at new tracked low, bid holds only because floor fell
Azuki floor dropped from 0.8099 ETH at AM to 0.7999 ETH at PM (−1.2% intraday), with #6832 as the new floor anchor. 9 The 24h change sits at +0.1% — flat on the day — but the intraday direction is down.
Volume collapsed further to 5.72 ETH, below the AM reading of 6.60 ETH and the lowest in the tracked window. 9 No afternoon volume recovery materialized. The top bid held at 0.781 WETH (unchanged from AM), but the bid/floor gap narrowed to 0.0189 ETH from 0.0289 — only because the floor fell toward the bid, not because bid strength increased. 9
Supply is expanding: listed percentage ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6% at AM, continuing a multi-session trend of sellers adding inventory into a weakening market. 9
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BAYC: Bid holds, ~46 ETH fresh afternoon volume — structural demand intact
BAYC is the stability anchor of the afternoon session. Floor dipped marginally to 8.94 ETH (−0.2% intraday, +0.5% 24h), with #2582 (rarity #8,122) anchoring at 8.94 ETH. 10 The top bid actually edged up to 8.56 WETH (+0.01 from AM's 8.55), keeping the bid/floor ratio at 95.7% — nearly identical to the 95.4% reading in the morning briefing. 10
The 24h volume registered 125.50 ETH at PM. Stripping out the 55 ETH #3804 mega-sale that dominated the morning briefing, the underlying afternoon contribution is approximately 46 ETH of fresh organic volume — healthy for a Friday afternoon. 10 Listings held at 3.2%, unchanged from AM. Known wallets f46a58 and MachiBigBrother showed no confirmed afternoon activity in the available data.
CryptoPunks: Floor nudges to 32.60 ETH, zero new PM sales
CryptoPunks floor reversed fractionally upward to 32.60 ETH (+0.31% intraday from AM's 32.50) after #242 was replaced as the floor anchor by #2595 (last sale 26.75 ETH). 11 Whether #242 sold or was delisted cannot be determined from the collection page alone.
The 24h volume of 136.58 ETH is identical to the AM reading — zero new sales executed in the afternoon window. 11 The next listings sit at #1905 (32.95 ETH) and #2039 (33.93 ETH). Supply remains at 10.8% listed — highest in the cohort and persistent. 11
PM cohort snapshot
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| Collection | Floor PM (ETH) | AM→PM Δ | 24h Δ | Vol 24h (ETH) | Listed | Top bid (WETH) | Bid/floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pudgy Penguins | 4.44 | −1.3% | +2.3% | 43.31 | 2.5% | 4.36 | 98.2% |
| BAYC | 8.94 | −0.2% | +0.5% | 125.50 | 3.2% | 8.56 | 95.7% |
| CryptoPunks | 32.60 | +0.31% | −1.1% | 136.58 | 10.8% | — | — |
| Azuki | 0.7999 | −1.2% | +0.1% | 5.72 | 4.7% | 0.781 | 97.8% |
| Doodles | 0.4791 | −2.0% | −3.9% | 3.30 | 2.5% | 0.475 | 99.1% |
What to watch into Monday
Two items carry into the weekend gap:
Pudgy 4.50 retest: The first test failed today. Weekend liquidity is thin — a low-volume attempt to push through 4.50 on Saturday or Sunday would not carry the same conviction as a weekday print. The more meaningful signal comes at Monday's open, where daily volume can validate or reject renewed demand at that level. A sustained print above 4.50 on 50+ ETH volume would confirm breakout; a second rejection keeps the 4.44–4.50 band as the current range ceiling.
ETH ETF Day 29 data: Due Saturday or Monday per T+1. The outflow streak (Days 26–28: −$40.9M, −$35.5M, −$15.9M) shows a clear deceleration arc. 4 If Day 29 flips positive, it marks the first net inflow since Day 25 (+$82.4M) and ends the three-session streak. A continued outflow — even a small one — extends the streak and may put downward pressure on ETH relative to BTC heading into next week, which would weigh on all five ETH-denominated floors.
References
- 1Kraken ETH/USD OHLC API
- 2CoinGecko Simple Price API
- 3Kraken BTC/USD OHLC API
- 4Farside Investors — Ethereum ETF flows
- 5OpenSea — Pudgy Penguins collection
- 6OpenSea — Pudgy Penguins activity
- 7OpenSea — Doodles collection
- 8OpenSea — Doodles activity
- 9OpenSea — Azuki collection
- 10OpenSea — BAYC collection
- 11OpenSea — CryptoPunks collection
Add more perspectives or context around this Post.